What is the Temecula Valley housing market doing in September 2026?

It's getting quieter without getting cheaper. In September 2026, inventory fell hard across Temecula, Murrieta, and Menifee — Menifee's active listings dropped 38% from a year ago — and there are simply fewer transactions happening. Yet the homes that do list are still selling in about 35 to 45 days, and average prices held flat to slightly up: Temecula rose about 4% to roughly $900,000, Murrieta ticked up 1% to $766,000, and Menifee slipped 6% to $543,000 (likely an outlier). The theme this month: fewer sellers, fewer buyers, steady prices, and a slow finish to what's usually the busy season.

By Justin Short | September 3, 2026

Every month I pull the same local numbers and compare them to the same month last year. This is my September 2026 update for Temecula, Murrieta, and Menifee — the full breakdown, plus what I'm actually seeing on the ground as an agent. Watch below, or read on for the numbers and what they mean for you.

New listings: Temecula flat, Murrieta and Menifee way down

Starting with new listings — the homes that came to market in the last 30 days — Temecula is the odd one out, holding steady while its neighbors dropped sharply.

• Temecula: 168 new listings last September, 171 this year — a 2% uptick, essentially flat.

• Murrieta: 197 down to 141 — a 33% decrease, 56 fewer homes.

• Menifee: 219 down to 175 — a 22% decrease, roughly 44 fewer homes.

I run the new-listing numbers at 2:04. Fewer homes coming to market feeds straight into the next stat.

Active inventory dropped across the board

Total active inventory — everything a buyer could actually choose from — fell in all three cities, and the declines here are steep.

• Temecula: 536 available a year ago, down 10% to 485 (51 fewer).

• Murrieta: 517 down to 387 — a 29% decrease, 130 fewer homes, roughly a third of the inventory gone.

• Menifee: 611 down to 417 — a 38% decrease, close to 200 fewer homes.

I break down active inventory at 3:53. This is the clearest signal of the month: there's a lot less to choose from than a year ago, especially in Menifee.

Homes are still selling at a steady pace

With inventory this thin, you might expect homes to be flying off the market — or stalling. Neither. The pace is basically unchanged from a year ago.

• Temecula: 33 days a year ago, 35 this year — two days slower, essentially flat.

• Murrieta: 38 days down to 35 — actually a touch faster.

• Menifee: 40 days up to 45 — about five days slower, roughly a month and a half.

I cover days on market at 5:36. Worth remembering: these are all still in seller's-market range. A true buyer's market generally doesn't show up until homes are averaging north of 60 days — and note that days on market measures time to accept an offer, with escrow on top of that.

Prices held flat to slightly up

Despite the inventory drop, prices didn't spike — and they didn't fall.

• Temecula: $863,000 a year ago, up to about $900,000 — a 4% increase (about $37,000).

• Murrieta: $759,000 up to $766,000 — a 1% increase, right in line with the slight upward drift I'm seeing with clients.

• Menifee: $576,000 down to $543,000 — a 6% decrease, but likely an outlier.

I walk through pricing at 7:30. One caution on average price: a single month swings on what sold. A handful of extra low-end sales, or fewer high-end ones, can drag the Menifee average down without home values actually dropping. I don't read that 6% as a real decline — but it's worth watching over the next couple of months.

Wondering what your specific home is worth in this market, or whether now is the time to list while inventory is scarce? That's the read The Short Real Estate Team gives Temecula Valley homeowners every day. Reach out at TheShortRealEstateTeam.com.

What it means: fewer transactions, steady values

Put it all together and the picture is consistent: fewer new listings, a lot less inventory, homes still selling at about the same speed, and prices essentially flat. I get into what it all means at 9:14. The real headline is fewer transactions overall.

What's driving it? On the ground, I'm seeing fewer people list, largely because of affordability and uncertainty — interest rates are still elevated, the next home up costs more, and there's plenty of reason for buyers and sellers to stay on the sidelines. Tellingly, this has held right through the season that's normally busiest for Southern California real estate. June through September is usually peak, and this year it's been slow: fewer showings, fewer offers, less activity. Not falling prices — just a market that's paused. (The extreme heat this summer probably hasn't helped either.)

If you're selling, scarce inventory is genuinely on your side — there's less competition than a year ago, and priced-right homes are still selling in about a month. The mistake in a lower-transaction market is overpricing; buyers are fewer and more deliberate, so getting the number right up front matters. My guide on how to price your Temecula home and avoid overpricing walks through it.

If you're buying, there's less bidding-war pressure than usual, but also less to choose from — so when the right home appears, be ready to move. If you're comparing communities, my Murrieta versus Menifee breakdown helps, and you can see how this compares to earlier in the year in my June 2026 market update.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Temecula Valley market slowing down in September 2026?

Activity is, but prices aren't. Inventory is down across all three cities (Menifee −38%) and transactions are fewer, yet homes still sell in about 35 to 45 days and prices are flat to slightly up. It's a quieter market, not a falling one.

Are home prices going up or down?

Mostly up a little. Temecula rose ~4% to about $900,000 and Murrieta ~1% to $766,000, while Menifee dipped ~6% to $543,000 — likely an outlier from the mix of homes sold. No sign of a crash.

How long are homes taking to sell?

About five to six and a half weeks — 35 days in Temecula, 35 in Murrieta, and 45 in Menifee. All still in seller's-market territory.

The bottom line for September 2026: the Temecula Valley market is slow on volume but steady on value. Fewer listings, fewer buyers, and quick sales for well-priced homes — with prices holding despite all the caution. Whether you're deciding to list into low inventory or buy with less competition, the smartest move is to look at your specific home and price point, not just the citywide averages.

That's what I do every day for buyers and sellers across Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee, and Winchester. If you want a straight answer on what your home is worth today or what you can buy in this market, call or text me at (951) 634-9322, or reach out at TheShortRealEstateTeam.com. Thank you!

About Justin Short

Justin Short is a local real estate agent who has lived in the Temecula Valley for over 25 years. A long-time top agent in the area, he has earned hundreds of 5-star reviews online helping buyers and sellers across Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee, and Winchester navigate the market with confidence. Connect with Justin at TheShortRealEstateTeam.com.